The ONS have announced that the publication of the second estimate of Q4 2016 GDP and associated data will brought forward one day, to 22 February 2017, in response to a request from the OBR. (more…)
As part of our ongoing goal to increase the transparency and accessibility of information, we have launched a new area of our website: Forecasts in-depth. Over time, we will collate and publish a wealth of material to this new area on each part of our economic and fiscal forecasts.
We have begun with the largest tax and spending lines as well as a large part of the economy forecast and, as with all our work, we would welcome user feedback on the content and presentation of these pages to OBRfeedback@obr.gsi.gov.uk
For the public finances, we take the information available in our documents and elsewhere on our website and gather it together for each line of our fiscal forecast, tax-by-tax and spend-by-spend. We have launched with four lines of the tax forecast, accounting for around 60 per cent of total receipts forecast in 2016-17, and four spending lines, which is just under 70 per cent of the total expenditure forecast in the same year.
For each one, we describe what the tax or spending line represents in the real world, how the amount of money raised or spent has evolved in recent years and set out our most recent forecast and how it is performing against the latest data. It also provides background information about how we produce each forecast, how they have evolved over time and other issues that we hope will be of interest.
In our new Forecasts in-depth area, we also describe how our economy forecast is produced and show our latest forecasts for each aspect of the economy. We also publish the full detail of our macroeconomic model, so that others can use it if they wish. We’ve begun with 5 pages that cover real GDP growth, the housing market, inflation, expenditure and the world economy and will continue to add more over time.
Since the publication of our November 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook we have received a request to publish the receipts and spending breakdowns of the alternative decomposition of changes in borrowing and a breakdown of changes in the oil and gas revenues forecast. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the main EFO page of our website.
Since the publication of our November 2016 Devolved taxes we have received a request to publish further detail of our forecasts. We have published this new supplementary forecast information on the main EFO page of our website.
Robert Chote distils the key messages from our latest Economic and fiscal outlook – published today – in his press conference presentation and accompanying speaking note.
The Government is no longer on course to balance the budget during the current Parliament and has formally dropped this ambition in a significant loosening of its fiscal targets. Public sector net borrowing is now expected to fall more slowly than we forecast in March, primarily reflecting weak tax receipts so far this year and a more subdued outlook for economic growth as the UK negotiates a new relationship with the European Union. (more…)
The Chancellor has relaxed his fiscal targets to make space for a modest infrastructure spending giveaway over the next five years. A weaker outlook for the economy and tax revenues – and these new spending commitments – mean that the budget is no longer expected to return to surplus in this Parliament, with a £21 billion deficit remaining in 2020-21.
Just want a summary? Read the overview here.
Pre-announced tax changes encourage house buyers to bring forward purchases, costing Government tax revenue.
Straightforward cuts in the generosity of benefits and tax credits are proving more reliable ways to cut the welfare budget than complex structural reforms to incapacity and disability benefits.