Publications

The OBR produces a variety of publications in pursuit of its duty to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances.

Economic and fiscal outlook

The Economic and fiscal outlook is usually published twice a year alongside the Budget and Autumn Statement. It sets out forecasts for the economy and the public finances over a five year horizon and assesses whether the Government is on course to hit its fiscal targets.

See the outlooks and accompanying documents

Fiscal sustainability report

The annual Fiscal sustainability report published in the summer presents long term projections for public spending and tax revenue, describes the public sector balance sheet, and sets out summary indicators of the long term sustainability of the public finances.

See the reports and accompanying documents

Forecast evaluation report

The Forecast evaluation report is released each October. It examines how forecasts in previous Economic and fiscal outlooks compare to subsequent outturns and draws lessons for future forecasts.

See the reports and accompanying documents

Welfare trends report

The Welfare trends report looks in detail at social security and tax credits spending. Our annual report examines the drivers of welfare spending, including both those elements inside and outside the cap.

See the latest report and accompanying documents

Monthly public finances release

We provide a same-day commentary on the monthly public finances statistics, to help people interpret the latest data in the light of our most recent forecasts.

Brief guides and explainers

For the non-expert readers, we produce short guides and explainers to describe key areas of our work.

Other publications

  • Briefing papers describe our work and explain the material we present.

  • Working papers to inform discussion on our forecasts.

  • Discussion papers are published to generate debate around key aspects of our work. Our Occasional papers are publications that are not part of a wider set of releases.

  • Devolved tax forecasts – since 2012 we have forecast some tax streams that have been devolved to the Scottish Parliament and, more recently, taxes which may be devolved to the National Assembly for Wales. Our forecasts for devolved taxes are published alongside each EFO and are consistent with our main UK forecasts.

  • database of subjective uncertainty ratings from ‘low’ to ‘very high’ assigned to each certified policy costing is updated at the time of each Budget and Autumn Statement.

Other releases

Publications