New methods increase headline debt and deficit


Methodological changes have increased the headline estimates of public sector borrowing and debt for 2013-14. The deficit so far in 2014-15 is up on last year, partly reflecting the impact of weak earnings growth on income tax. But we still expect receipts to strengthen later in the year.


What else is new

9th September 2014

Our 7th Working Paper explains the evolution of the public finances from the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2007-08 to the end of our forecast in 2018-19. This period saw the largest peacetime shock to the public finances in living memory, and ends with one of the biggest deficit reduction programmes seen in […]

3rd September 2014

The OBR’s non-executive members commissioned Kevin Page to lead the first External review into the work of the OBR in April. The Review concludes that the OBR has “laudably achieved the core duties of its mandate” and “has succeeded in reducing perceptions of bias in fiscal and economic forecasting”. It also makes recommendations on how […]

30th July 2014

Robert Chote has issued a note on the Government’s new proposals on migrants’ benefits announced on 29 July and the Government’s reference to £500 million of savings expected over the next five years.

What we do

The Office for Budget Responsibility:

  • produces forecasts for the economy and public finances,
  • judges progress towards the Government's fiscal targets,
  • assesses the long-term sustainability of the public finances,
  • scrutinises the Treasury's costing of tax and welfare measures. more

What's coming

Forecast evaluation report and Welfare trends report
Public finances release
Public finances release

More of what's coming